Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 1.905674 2.276916 2.693545 3.194607 3.779666 4.439966 5.240373
2026-02-08 1.378875 1.851177 2.438247 3.216913 4.217309 5.453555 7.090401
2026-02-15 1.057839 1.564550 2.249577 3.233073 4.596494 6.405424 8.969564
2026-02-22 0.828873 1.333842 2.067882 3.195367 4.861659 7.206775 10.722417
2026-03-01 0.637089 1.108124 1.839777 3.034289 4.903406 7.674666 12.037764
2026-03-08 0.520484 0.970931 1.713286 2.992411 5.096454 8.360051 13.719202
2026-03-15 0.435121 0.866200 1.616505 2.974608 5.311881 9.087101 15.523328
2026-03-22 0.396042 0.834601 1.635079 3.146930 5.851480 10.372900 18.329355
2026-03-29 0.351868 0.783970 1.609944 3.235254 6.252526 11.464577 20.915236
2026-04-05 0.319865 0.750708 1.610365 3.367129 6.740954 12.745052 23.931047
2026-04-12 0.278287 0.688951 1.545012 3.362776 6.975039 13.597941 26.274531
2026-04-19 0.234132 0.612309 1.436673 3.256458 6.999228 14.069144 27.970146
2026-04-26 0.195274 0.540493 1.328383 3.137982 6.991782 14.493485 29.646534
2026-05-03 0.170769 0.498135 1.277512 3.133544 7.213172 15.372634 32.258108
2026-05-10 0.150571 0.462249 1.235235 3.141253 7.459249 16.320859 35.084377
2026-05-17 0.130605 0.422352 1.176451 3.102092 7.598190 17.064603 37.568382
2026-05-24 0.107785 0.368811 1.074288 2.944621 7.454276 17.210422 38.853507
2026-05-31 0.093711 0.337486 1.023339 2.903663 7.568846 17.906570 41.328234
2026-06-07 0.082526 0.312291 0.984188 2.886278 7.735447 18.727671 44.131943
2026-06-14 0.079301 0.312206 1.014543 3.053902 8.365463 20.622195 49.392263
2026-06-21 0.073499 0.302034 1.014381 3.139830 8.803444 22.122332 53.904492
2026-06-28 0.069467 0.297133 1.028951 3.268145 9.361695 23.942872 59.265460
2026-07-05 0.062131 0.278273 0.997936 3.263909 9.579019 24.989669 62.960021